Mallorca 3-1 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visit Mallorca Estadi plays host to Mallorca versus Getafe in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 23 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Mallorca (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 5W 3D 2L at Visit Mallorca Estadi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Getafe's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Getafe away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Mallorca, 1.40 for Getafe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Mallorca, 2 for Getafe and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Getafe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Getafe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 42% versus Getafe 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 36% | Getafe 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.13 xG and Getafe 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.846 / defence 0.832 | Getafe attack 0.842 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.036. Data: 67 Mallorca games / 67 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 31% | Getafe 23%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Getafe 4.35. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Getafe's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 30% | Getafe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 31% | Getafe 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Mallorca 1.13 / Getafe 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.846 / def 0.832 | Getafe attack 0.842 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Getafe xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Getafe kick off?
Mallorca vs Getafe kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Getafe?
Mallorca 3 - 1 Getafe.
Where is Mallorca vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Getafe part of?
Mallorca vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 45% chance of winning, Getafe a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Mallorca and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Getafe?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 1 | Getafe 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Getafe in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Getafe (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.85) and Getafe's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.84x) against Mallorca's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
45%
2.21
31%
3.19
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.86
0.73
Getafe xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.73 for Getafe, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 20W 16D 31L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Getafe's form line: 15W 25D 27L from 67 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Mallorca against 1.04 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.48 PPG from 33 outings (13W 10D 10L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 3W 13D 17L from 33 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.90 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Getafe in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Getafe in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 20W 16D 31L in their last 67 games (1.13 PPG), while Getafe have gone 15W 25D 27L in their last 67 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Getafe away?
Mallorca's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.48 PPG; Getafe away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Getafe in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mallorca
2
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Getafe?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 4, Getafe have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Getafe 3-1 Mallorca.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 42%, Getafe 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Mallorca and 27% for Getafe.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 33% of games; Getafe in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mallorca's recent matches and 46% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Mallorca's recent games and 27% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Getafe tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Getafe in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Getafe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Getafe 3-1 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.13 xG and Getafe 0.73 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 0.83 against Getafe attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 45% | Draw 31% | Getafe 23%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 36%, Getafe 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.13 PPG, Getafe 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Getafe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.