Mallorca 0-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visit Mallorca Estadi plays host to Mallorca versus Getafe in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Mallorca (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 2W 4D 1L at Visit Mallorca Estadi — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.43 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Getafe's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe away from home this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Mallorca, 0.90 for Getafe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Getafe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 57% versus Getafe 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 36% | Getafe 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.15 xG and Getafe 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.950 / defence 1.191 | Getafe attack 0.510 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.136. Data: 14 Mallorca games / 14 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 34% | Getafe 21%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Getafe 4.76. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 57% | Getafe 29% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 45% | Draw 34% | Getafe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Mallorca 1.15 / Getafe 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.950 / def 1.191 | Getafe attack 0.510 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Getafe xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Getafe kick off?
Mallorca vs Getafe kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Getafe?
Mallorca 0 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Mallorca vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Getafe part of?
Mallorca vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 45% chance of winning, Getafe a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Mallorca and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Getafe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Getafe in?
Mallorca (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Getafe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.95) and Getafe's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.51x) against Mallorca's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
45%
2.20
34%
2.94
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.84
0.69
Getafe xG
2.20
45%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.69 for Getafe, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 3W 6D 5L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe's form line: 2W 3D 9L from 14 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mallorca are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Getafe.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.71 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Getafe in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Getafe have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Getafe away?
Mallorca's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.43 PPG; Getafe away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mallorca
2
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Getafe?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 4, Getafe have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Getafe 3-1 Mallorca.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 57%, Getafe 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Mallorca and 29% for Getafe.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Getafe in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Mallorca's recent matches and 29% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Mallorca's recent games and 29% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Getafe tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Getafe in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 15, as Mallorca and Getafe drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.15 xG and Getafe 0.69 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Getafe attack 0.51 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 45% | Draw 34% | Getafe 21%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 36%, Getafe 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.