Levante 1-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Espanyol at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Espanyol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Levante welcome Espanyol to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 January 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Levante have gone 0W 2D 5L this season (7 games, 0.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.29 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Espanyol stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Espanyol's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Espanyol's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Levante's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Levante, 1 for Espanyol and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Levante in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Espanyol in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 53% versus Espanyol 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 53% | Espanyol 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.85 xG and Espanyol 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.742 / defence 1.450 | Espanyol attack 1.031 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.122. Levante's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Levante games / 56 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 17% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 55%. Fair-value odds: Levante 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Espanyol 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Espanyol (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Espanyol at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levante 71% | Espanyol 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jan 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 17% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Levante 0.85 / Espanyol 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.742 / def 1.450 | Espanyol attack 1.031 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Espanyol xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Espanyol kick off?
Levante vs Espanyol kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 11 January 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Espanyol?
Levante 1 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Levante vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Espanyol part of?
Levante vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 17% chance of winning, Espanyol a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Levante and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Espanyol?
Record (2 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 1 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Levante and Espanyol in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Espanyol (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Levante's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Espanyol's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
17%
5.83
27%
3.64
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Levante xG
Total xG
2.52
1.68
Espanyol xG
5.83
17%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
3%
31.17
24%
4.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 13.4 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Levante and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Levante and 1.68 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Espanyol?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Levante have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 3W 4D 10L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol's form line: 9W 3D 5L from 17 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Espanyol are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.29 PPG from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L). That actually lags their 0.76 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Espanyol have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.18 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Espanyol in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Espanyol away?
Espanyol's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.29 PPG; Espanyol away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Levante or Espanyol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Espanyol in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levante and Espanyol runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Espanyol won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levante's record when hosting Espanyol specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Levante
3
Draws
2
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Espanyol?
From 5 meetings on record, Levante have won 0, Espanyol have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Espanyol 3-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Espanyol?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Espanyol see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 71%, Espanyol 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Levante) and 29% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Espanyol in 57%; Levante have failed to score in 29% of games; Espanyol in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Espanyol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Levante's recent matches and 29% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Levante's recent games and 29% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Espanyol tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante and Espanyol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 19, as Levante and Espanyol drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.85 xG and Espanyol 1.68 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.74 / defence 1.45 against Espanyol attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 17/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 17% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 55%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 53%, Espanyol 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Espanyol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.