Las Palmas 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Las Palmas at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Cadiz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio de Gran Canaria to face Las Palmas in La Liga (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Las Palmas have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Las Palmas at home: 4W 2D 1L from their last 7 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 7 home games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cadiz's record over their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Cadiz have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Las Palmas. A 1.40 PPG lead over Cadiz (1.90 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Las Palmas goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 29% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 38% versus Cadiz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 25% | Cadiz 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.37 xG and Cadiz 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.896 / defence 0.879 | Cadiz attack 0.844 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.095. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 16 games and Cadiz's last 54.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 47% | Draw 33% | Cadiz 19%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.12 | Draw 3.00 | Cadiz 5.14. Las Palmas hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Las Palmas as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Las Palmas's last 7 home games and Cadiz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 43% (last 7 home games) | Cadiz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 47% | Draw 33% | Cadiz 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Las Palmas 1.37 / Cadiz 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.896 / def 0.879 | Cadiz attack 0.844 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cadiz xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Cadiz kick off?
Las Palmas vs Cadiz kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Cadiz?
Las Palmas 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Las Palmas vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Cadiz part of?
Las Palmas vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 47% chance of winning, Cadiz a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Las Palmas and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Las Palmas vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.90x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.84x) against Las Palmas's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 16 games and Cadiz's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
47%
2.12
33%
3.00
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.18
0.81
Cadiz xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
5%
20.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Las Palmas and 0.81 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 7W 3D 6L from 16 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 7L across 16 games — 0.81 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Las Palmas by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 4W 2D 1L from their last 7 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Las Palmas are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cadiz's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across their last 7 away games, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Las Palmas are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.81 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
Las Palmas (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Las Palmas vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 2W 7D 7L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Cadiz away?
Las Palmas's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 2.00 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
2
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Cadiz?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 0, Cadiz have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 May 2024: Cadiz 0-0 Las Palmas.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Las Palmas's games tend to start slowly — only 29% have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 43%, Cadiz 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Las Palmas and 29% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Las Palmas have failed to score in 29% of games; Cadiz in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 57% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Las Palmas and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Las Palmas's recent games and 29% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 29% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 71% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas and Cadiz finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.37 xG and Cadiz 0.81 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.90 / defence 0.88 against Cadiz attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 47% | Draw 33% | Cadiz 19%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 25%, Cadiz 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Las Palmas arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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