Granada CF 1-0 Sevilla – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Sevilla at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Sevilla encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Granada CF welcome Sevilla to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 outings — a 0.43 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Granada CF's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 games at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this term (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sevilla stand at 4W 2D 0L from 6 La Liga matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.33. Defensively, 0.33 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Sevilla have posted 1W 2D 0L from 3 away outings — 1.67 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.67 is notably below their overall 2.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sevilla are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.33 vs 0.43), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Trading Patterns

Granada CF in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Sevilla in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 67% versus Sevilla 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 50% | Sevilla 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 0.97 xG and Sevilla 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.974 / defence 1.442 | Sevilla attack 0.791 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 0.941. Data: 7 Granada CF games / 6 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Granada CF 30% | Draw 34% | Sevilla 36%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Sevilla 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Granada CF 100% | Sevilla 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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