Granada CF 0-3 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Granada CF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Granada CF welcome Sevilla to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 games at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this term (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sevilla stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Sevilla have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Granada CF 0.40 PPG, Sevilla 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Granada CF register both teams scoring in 88% of relevant matches, Sevilla in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Granada CF, 1 for Sevilla and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2022, ended 2–4 with Sevilla winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Granada CF in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sevilla in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Granada CF 65% and Sevilla 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 47% | Sevilla 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.45 xG and Sevilla 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.958 / defence 1.387 | Sevilla attack 0.935 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.089. Data: 17 Granada CF games / 54 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 34%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Sevilla 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Granada CF at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Granada CF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 88% | Sevilla 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Dec 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Granada CF 1.45 / Sevilla 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.958 / def 1.387 | Sevilla attack 0.935 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Sevilla xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Sevilla kick off?
Granada CF vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:30 on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Sevilla?
Granada CF 0 - 3 Sevilla.
Where is Granada CF vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Sevilla part of?
Granada CF vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 36% chance of winning, Sevilla a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Granada CF and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Sevilla?
Record (2 meetings): Granada CF 1W | Draws 0 | Sevilla 1W.
What form are Granada CF and Sevilla in?
Granada CF (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Sevilla (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Granada CF's attack rating (0.96) and Sevilla's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.36
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.41
Sevilla xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.41 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Granada CF's recent record stands at 1W 5D 11L from 17 games, a 0.47 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 8L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Granada CF on 0.47 PPG, Sevilla on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 1W 4D 3L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.47 PPG overall — Granada CF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sevilla's away record stands at 0W 3D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Granada CF are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.24 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Sevilla in 71%.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 1W 5D 11L in their last 17 games (0.47 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 2W 7D 8L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Sevilla away?
Granada CF's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.88 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Granada CF and Sevilla runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sevilla have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2023, when Sevilla won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Granada CF's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Granada CF
0
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Sevilla?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 1, Sevilla have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Sevilla 3-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Granada CF at 88%, Sevilla at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Granada CF) and 50% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Sevilla in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Sevilla?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Granada CF's games and 62% of Sevilla's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Granada CF's recent games and 50% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Sevilla tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sevilla run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Granada CF 0-3 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.45 xG and Sevilla 1.41 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Granada CF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sevilla outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.96 / defence 1.39 against Sevilla attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 36% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 34%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 47%, Sevilla 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.47 PPG, Sevilla 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.