Granada CF 1-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Celta Vigo travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 May 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Granada CF's home record at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Granada CF are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Celta Vigo have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Celta Vigo away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Granada CF at 0.60 PPG versus Celta Vigo's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Granada CF have won 0, Celta Vigo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Celta Vigo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Granada CF trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Celta Vigo trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 61% versus Celta Vigo 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 48% | Celta Vigo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 0.83 xG and Celta Vigo 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.851 / defence 1.638 | Celta Vigo attack 0.737 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 1.127. Data: 33 Granada CF games / 33 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 23% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 49%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Celta Vigo 2.04. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 70% | Celta Vigo 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 23% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Granada CF 0.83 / Celta Vigo 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.851 / def 1.638 | Celta Vigo attack 0.737 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.078 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Celta Vigo xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Granada CF vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Granada CF 1 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Granada CF vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Celta Vigo part of?
Granada CF vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 23% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Granada CF and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Celta Vigo?
Record (1 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 0 | Celta Vigo 1W.
What form are Granada CF and Celta Vigo in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
23%
4.39
28%
3.56
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.19
1.36
Celta Vigo xG
4.39
23%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
6%
17.11
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 15.2 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.36 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Granada CF come into this having played 33 games, going 6W 12D 15L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Celta Vigo sit at 1.18 PPG from 33 outings (10W 9D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Granada CF on 0.91 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Granada CF's home form reads 4W 5D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Celta Vigo have taken 1.25 points per game from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Granada CF are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.09 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Celta Vigo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 6W 12D 15L in their last 33 games (0.91 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Celta Vigo away?
Celta Vigo's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.06 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Granada CF or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Celta Vigo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Granada CF's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
3
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Celta Vigo?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Celta Vigo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Granada CF 1-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 75%, Celta Vigo 19% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Granada CF) and 25% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo in 50%; Celta Vigo in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Granada CF's recent matches and 19% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Granada CF vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Granada CF's recent games and 25% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 34, as Granada CF and Celta Vigo drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 0.83 xG and Celta Vigo 1.36 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.85 / defence 1.64 against Celta Vigo attack 0.74 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 23% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 49%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 48%, Celta Vigo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.91 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.