Girona 0-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Girona at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Girona face Villarreal.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Girona and Villarreal meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga (matchday 36). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 22:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Girona have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Girona have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Girona are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Villarreal (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Villarreal's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Girona, 2.20 for Villarreal — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Girona's last 10 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games) — Girona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Villarreal in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Girona, 2 for Villarreal and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2023, ended Girona 2–1 Villarreal — a Girona win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 64% and Villarreal 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Villarreal 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.94 xG and Villarreal 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.674 / defence 1.027 | Villarreal attack 1.353 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.094. Girona carry an above-average attack rating of 1.674 — their 2.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Villarreal's defence rating of 1.219 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Girona's projected output up. Villarreal have an above-average attack rating of 1.353, which lifts their away xG to 1.52. Data: built from Girona's last 73 games and Villarreal's last 73.

Result probabilities: Girona 67% | Draw 16% | Villarreal 17%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.50 | Draw 6.29 | Villarreal 5.73. The model has a clear lean to Girona (67%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 4.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.94 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 67% — clear model lean.

Poisson projects 4.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Villarreal's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Girona 60% (last 10 home games) | Villarreal 90% (last 10 away games).

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