Girona 0-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Rayo Vallecano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 25 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Girona's home record at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi: 7W 1D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rayo Vallecano have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayo Vallecano's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Girona 1.40 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Girona, 0 for Rayo Vallecano and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 52% versus Rayo Vallecano 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 61% | Rayo Vallecano 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.94 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.399 / defence 1.106 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.846 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.082. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Girona games / 44 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 57% | Draw 26% | Rayo Vallecano 17%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Rayo Vallecano 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Girona (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Girona 40% | Rayo Vallecano 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 57% | Draw 26% | Rayo Vallecano 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Girona 1.94 / Rayo Vallecano 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.399 / def 1.106 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.846 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Girona (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Rayo Vallecano xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Girona vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 25 September 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Girona 0 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Girona vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Girona vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 57% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Girona and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (4 meetings): Girona 2W | Draws 2 | Rayo Vallecano 0W.
What form are Girona and Rayo Vallecano in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Girona's attack at 1.40x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.92
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Girona xG
Total xG
2.96
1.01
Rayo Vallecano xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
40.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Girona and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Girona and 1.01 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Rayo Vallecano?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 27W 7D 10L from 44 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 18L across 44 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayo Vallecano heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 16W 2D 3L from 21 games — 2.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 4W 7D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 0.84 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Early Season
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 27W 7D 10L in their last 44 games (2.00 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 10W 16D 18L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Girona's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.38 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Girona or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Rayo Vallecano runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2024, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Girona
4
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Rayo Vallecano?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Girona.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 48%, Rayo Vallecano 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Girona) and 43% (Rayo Vallecano). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 43%; Rayo Vallecano in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Girona's recent matches and 24% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Girona's matches and 43% of Rayo Vallecano's.
Do Girona and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Girona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 7, as Girona and Rayo Vallecano drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.94 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.01 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Girona fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.40 / defence 1.11 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 57% | Draw 26% | Rayo Vallecano 17%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 61%, Rayo Vallecano 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.