Girona 0-4 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (38%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Girona face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Girona welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga (matchday 38). Kick-off is Sunday 25 May 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Girona have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Girona have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atletico Madrid — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Atletico Madrid's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atletico Madrid are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Atletico Madrid have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Girona.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Girona 0–3 Atletico Madrid — a Atletico Madrid win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Atletico Madrid have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Atletico Madrid trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 55% versus Atletico Madrid 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 59% | Atletico Madrid 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.03 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.873 / defence 1.102 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.883 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.159. Data: built from Girona's last 75 games and Atletico Madrid's last 75.
Result probabilities: Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 38%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.06 | Draw 3.39 | Atletico Madrid 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Girona 60% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Madrid 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 38 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Girona 1.03 / Atletico Madrid 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.873 / def 1.102 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.883 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Atletico Madrid xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Atletico Madrid FAQs
What time does Girona vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Girona vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Girona 0 - 4 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Girona vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Girona vs Atletico Madrid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 38) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 33% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Girona and Atletico Madrid will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Girona vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Girona's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 75 games and Atletico Madrid's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
33%
3.06
29%
3.39
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Girona xG
Total xG
2.15
1.13
Atletico Madrid xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Girona and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Girona and 1.13 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Girona have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 36W 14D 25L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 45W 14D 16L from 75 games, 1.99 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.63 PPG, Atletico Madrid on 1.99. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.92 PPG from their last 37 home games (22W 5D 10L).
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 15W 9D 13L from their last 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.99 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.79 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Girona (Home) vs Atletico Madrid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
❓ Girona vs Atletico Madrid Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 36W 14D 25L in their last 75 games (1.63 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 45W 14D 16L in their last 75 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Girona's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.92 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Girona or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2025, when Atletico Madrid won Girona 0-4 Atletico Madrid.
Girona's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
0
Draws
7
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Atletico Madrid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 51%, Atletico Madrid 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Girona) and 38% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 38%; Atletico Madrid in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Atletico Madrid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Atletico Madrid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Girona's recent matches and 35% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Girona and Atletico Madrid matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Girona's recent games and 38% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Atletico Madrid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Girona's recent matches and 70% of Atletico Madrid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atletico Madrid run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Girona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Girona 0-4 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.03 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.13 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Girona fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atletico Madrid outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.88 / defence 0.85, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 38%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 59%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.63 PPG, Atletico Madrid 1.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Madrid win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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