Girona 5-2 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Almeria meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Girona's overall La Liga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's home record at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi: 7W 0D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almeria (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Girona's favour (2.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Girona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Almeria in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Girona 1W, Almeria 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 6–2 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Girona — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Almeria — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 68% and Almeria 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Almeria 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.58 xG and Almeria 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.215 / defence 1.172 | Almeria attack 0.866 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.201. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing Girona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Girona games / 47 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 66% | Draw 18% | Almeria 16%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Almeria 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Girona (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.58 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Almeria 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 66% | Draw 18% | Almeria 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 66% | xG Girona 2.58 / Almeria 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.215 / def 1.172 | Almeria attack 0.866 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Girona (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.58
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Almeria xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Almeria kick off?
Girona vs Almeria kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Almeria?
Girona 5 - 2 Almeria.
Where is Girona vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Almeria part of?
Girona vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 66% chance of winning, Almeria a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Girona and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Almeria?
Record (2 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 0 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Girona and Almeria in?
Girona (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Almeria (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.22) and Almeria's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (0.87x) against Girona's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
66%
1.51
18%
5.48
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.58
Girona xG
Total xG
3.80
1.22
Almeria xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
8%
13.20
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
1%
84.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Girona and 1.22 for Almeria, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Girona come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 11D 16L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almeria sit at 0.94 PPG from 47 outings (11W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Girona's home form reads 13W 3D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Almeria have taken 0.39 points per game from 23 outings (1W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.28 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Almeria in 68%.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Almeria in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 11D 25L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Almeria away?
Girona's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.83 PPG; Almeria away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won 6-2 on 17 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almeria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Girona
1
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Almeria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Almeria 0-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Almeria?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Girona, 70% for Almeria — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Girona and 65% for Almeria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almeria in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Girona's games and 70% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Girona's matches and 65% of Almeria's.
Do Girona and Almeria tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Almeria in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Almeria 5-2 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.58 xG and Almeria 1.22 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.22 / defence 1.17 against Almeria attack 0.87 / defence 1.41, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 66% | Draw 18% | Almeria 16%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Almeria 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.