Getafe 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Getafe at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Getafe vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Getafe host Osasuna at Coliseum in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Getafe's home record at Coliseum: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Getafe carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Getafe have won 4, Osasuna 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Osasuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Getafe in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 36% versus Osasuna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 31% | Osasuna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.24 xG and Osasuna 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.780 / defence 0.946 | Osasuna attack 0.894 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.142. Getafe's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Getafe games / 75 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 42% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 29%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Getafe are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 30% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Coliseum • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 42% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Getafe 1.24 / Osasuna 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.780 / def 0.946 | Osasuna attack 0.894 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Getafe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Osasuna xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Osasuna kick off?
Getafe vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Getafe 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Getafe vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Osasuna part of?
Getafe vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 42% chance of winning, Osasuna a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Getafe and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Osasuna?
Record (8 meetings): Getafe 4W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Getafe and Osasuna in?
Getafe (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.78) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.47
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.20
0.97
Osasuna xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Getafe and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Getafe and 0.97 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Getafe have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 25W 15D 35L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 23W 25D 27L from 75 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Getafe on 1.20 PPG, Osasuna on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Getafe have posted 1.16 PPG from 37 outings (11W 10D 16L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 4W 14D 19L from 37 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osasuna in 60%.
Last 75 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 25W 15D 35L in their last 75 games (1.20 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 23W 25D 27L in their last 75 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Osasuna away?
Getafe's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.16 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Getafe and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Getafe's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Getafe
2
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 5, Osasuna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Osasuna 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Osasuna?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 40%, Osasuna 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Getafe and 35% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Getafe have failed to score in 40% of games; Osasuna in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Getafe's recent matches and 46% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Getafe's recent games and 35% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Osasuna 1-0 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.24 xG and Osasuna 0.97 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.78 / defence 0.95 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 42% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 29%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 31%, Osasuna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.20 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.