Elche 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Osasuna at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Elche vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Elche and Osasuna meet at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 January 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Elche (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Osasuna are 1.00 PPG clear of Elche in recent La Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Elche lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Elche goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 53% versus Osasuna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 54% | Osasuna 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 0.78 xG and Osasuna 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.697 / defence 1.261 | Osasuna attack 0.798 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.015. Elche's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Elche games / 55 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 27% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 40%. Fair-value odds: Elche 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Osasuna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Elche's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Elche 50% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 27% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Elche 0.78 / Osasuna 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.697 / def 1.261 | Osasuna attack 0.798 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Osasuna xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Osasuna kick off?
Elche vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Osasuna?
Elche 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Elche vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Osasuna part of?
Elche vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 27% chance of winning, Osasuna a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Elche and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Osasuna?
Record (2 meetings): Elche 0W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Elche and Osasuna in?
Elche (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Elche's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.80x) against Elche's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
27%
3.69
33%
3.07
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Elche xG
Total xG
1.80
1.02
Osasuna xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 16.9 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Elche and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Elche and 1.02 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Elche come into this having played 55 games, going 11W 14D 30L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.35 PPG from 55 outings (20W 14D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Elche — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Elche's home form reads 7W 8D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.26 points per game from 27 outings (9W 7D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Elche are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.98 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 11W 14D 30L in their last 55 games (0.85 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.07 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Elche or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Elche have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Osasuna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Elche have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Elche
5
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Osasuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Elche have won 0, Osasuna have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Elche 0-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 56%, Osasuna 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Elche) and 30% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Elche have failed to score in 33% of games; Osasuna in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Elche's recent matches and 37% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Elche's recent games and 30% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Osasuna tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche and Osasuna finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 0.78 xG and Osasuna 1.02 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.70 / defence 1.26 against Osasuna attack 0.80 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 27% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 40%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 54%, Osasuna 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.