Elche 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Elche vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Elche and Osasuna meet at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Elche (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Elche's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Elche against 1.50 for Osasuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Elche lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Elche goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 54% versus Osasuna 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 54% | Osasuna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.45 xG and Osasuna 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.978 / defence 1.140 | Osasuna attack 0.828 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.127. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Elche's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Elche games / 33 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 46% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 28%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Osasuna 3.57. Elche hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Elche as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Elche if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Elche 50% | Osasuna 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 46% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Elche 1.45 / Osasuna 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.978 / def 1.140 | Osasuna attack 0.828 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Elche (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Osasuna xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Osasuna kick off?
Elche vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Osasuna?
Elche 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Elche vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Osasuna part of?
Elche vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 46% chance of winning, Osasuna a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Elche and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Elche 0W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Elche and Osasuna in?
Elche (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Elche's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.83x) against Elche's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.81
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Elche xG
Total xG
2.52
1.06
Osasuna xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Elche and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Elche and 1.06 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Elche come into this having played 33 games, going 10W 8D 15L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.33 PPG from 33 outings (12W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Elche against 1.33 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Elche's home form reads 6W 5D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.44 points per game from 16 outings (7W 2D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Elche are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.03 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Osasuna away?
Elche's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.44 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Elche or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Elche have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Osasuna in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Elche have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Elche
5
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Osasuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Elche have won 0, Osasuna have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Elche 0-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 56%, Osasuna 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Elche) and 44% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Elche keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Osasuna in 31%; Osasuna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Elche's recent matches and 31% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Elche's recent games and 44% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Osasuna tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 34, as Elche and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.45 xG and Osasuna 1.06 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Osasuna attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 46% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 28%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 54%, Osasuna 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 1.15 PPG, Osasuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.