Elche 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mallorca at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Elche vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Elche host Mallorca at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Elche stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Elche have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Elche have posted 2W 2D 6L at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mallorca — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mallorca — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Elche have won 1, Mallorca 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Elche winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Elche in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Mallorca in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 51% versus Mallorca 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 56% | Mallorca 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.17 xG and Mallorca 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.838 / defence 1.182 | Mallorca attack 0.926 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.211. Data: 45 Elche games / 45 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 33% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 40%. Fair-value odds: Elche 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Mallorca 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Elche 60% | Mallorca 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 33% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Elche 1.17 / Mallorca 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.838 / def 1.182 | Mallorca attack 0.926 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Mallorca xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Mallorca kick off?
Elche vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Mallorca?
Elche 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Elche vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Mallorca part of?
Elche vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 33% chance of winning, Mallorca a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Elche and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Elche 1W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Elche and Mallorca in?
Elche (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Elche's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Elche's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.71
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Elche xG
Total xG
2.50
1.33
Mallorca xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Elche and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Elche and 1.33 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Elche have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 11W 10D 24L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Elche, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca's form line: 12W 11D 22L from 45 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Elche on 0.96 PPG, Mallorca on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Elche have posted 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (7W 7D 8L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 4W 4D 14L from 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Elche come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Elche are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.93 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 45 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 11W 10D 24L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 12W 11D 22L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Mallorca away?
Elche's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.27 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Elche and Mallorca runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Elche won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Elche's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Elche
2
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Mallorca?
From 6 meetings on record, Elche have won 3, Mallorca have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Elche 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Mallorca?
Elche have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 59%, Mallorca 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Elche) and 50% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Elche have failed to score in 27% of games; Mallorca in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Elche's recent matches and 46% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Elche's recent games and 50% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Mallorca tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche and Mallorca finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.17 xG and Mallorca 1.33 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Mallorca attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 33% | Draw 27% | Mallorca 40%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 56%, Mallorca 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 0.96 PPG, Mallorca 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.