Elche 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Elche vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Cadiz travel to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero to take on Elche. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 June 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Elche have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Elche have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Cadiz — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cadiz's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Elche) versus 1.30 (Cadiz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Elche, 1 for Cadiz and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Elche in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 49% versus Cadiz 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 51% | Cadiz 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.26 xG and Cadiz 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.855 / defence 1.139 | Cadiz attack 0.727 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.034. Data: 75 Elche games / 75 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 46% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 25%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Cadiz 4.00. Elche hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Elche as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Elche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Elche 50% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 46% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Elche 1.26 / Cadiz 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.855 / def 1.139 | Cadiz attack 0.727 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Elche (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Elche xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cadiz xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Cadiz kick off?
Elche vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Cadiz?
Elche 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Elche vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Cadiz part of?
Elche vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 46% chance of winning, Cadiz a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Elche and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Cadiz?
Record (3 meetings): Elche 1W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 1W.
What form are Elche and Cadiz in?
Elche (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Cadiz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Elche's attack rating (0.85) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Elche's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.45
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Elche xG
Total xG
2.12
0.86
Cadiz xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
7%
14.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Elche and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Elche and 0.86 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Elche's recent record stands at 16W 18D 41L from 75 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 18W 26D 31L across 75 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Elche on 0.88 PPG, Cadiz on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Elche have managed 10W 11D 16L from 37 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 8W 11D 18L across 37 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Elche are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.85 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 75 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 16W 18D 41L in their last 75 games (0.88 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 18W 26D 31L in their last 75 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Cadiz away?
Elche's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.11 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Elche or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Elche have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Cadiz in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Cadiz won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Elche's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Elche
2
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Cadiz?
From 4 meetings on record, Elche have won 1, Cadiz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Elche 1-1 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 54%, Cadiz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Elche) and 35% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 35%; Elche have failed to score in 32% of games; Cadiz in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Elche's recent matches and 38% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Elche's recent games and 35% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Cadiz tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 38, as Elche and Cadiz drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.26 xG and Cadiz 0.86 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.85 / defence 1.14 against Cadiz attack 0.73 / defence 1.00, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 46% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 25%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 51%, Cadiz 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 0.88 PPG, Cadiz 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.