Celta Vigo 0-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Celta Vigo and Mallorca meet at Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Monday 17 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Celta Vigo's home record at Abanca-Balaídos: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Abanca-Balaídos this season.
Mallorca have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Celta Vigo's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Celta Vigo, 1 for Mallorca and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 44% versus Mallorca 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 42% | Mallorca 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.77 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.089 / defence 0.941 | Mallorca attack 0.871 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.051. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Celta Vigo games / 66 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 59% | Draw 23% | Mallorca 18%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Mallorca 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Monday 17 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 59% | Draw 23% | Mallorca 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Celta Vigo 1.77 / Mallorca 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.089 / def 0.941 | Mallorca attack 0.871 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mallorca xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Mallorca kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 17 April 2023 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Celta Vigo 0 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca part of?
Celta Vigo vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 59% chance of winning, Mallorca a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Celta Vigo and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
Record (3 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Mallorca in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (1.09) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.87x) against Celta Vigo's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.30
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.63
0.86
Mallorca xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
3%
32.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.86 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 21W 19D 26L from 66 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 31L across 66 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.11 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 12W 9D 12L from 33 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 6W 6D 21L across 33 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.92 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 66 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 21W 19D 26L in their last 66 games (1.24 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 19W 16D 31L in their last 66 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Mallorca away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.36 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mallorca in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Mallorca have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 52%, Mallorca 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Celta Vigo) and 42% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mallorca in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 42% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 42% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Mallorca tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Celta Vigo 0-1 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.77 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Celta Vigo fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Mallorca attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 59% | Draw 23% | Mallorca 18%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 42%, Mallorca 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.24 PPG, Mallorca 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.