Cadiz 1-4 Valencia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cadiz at 38%, yet in-form Valencia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cadiz vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cadiz and Valencia meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.

Current Form

Cadiz's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Cadiz's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cadiz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Valencia have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Valencia away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Valencia arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Cadiz, 1 for Valencia and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2023, ended Cadiz 0–2 Valencia — a Valencia win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 39% versus Valencia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 28% | Valencia 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.17 xG and Valencia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.750 / defence 0.948 | Valencia attack 0.924 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.106. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Data: built from Cadiz's last 57 games and Valencia's last 57.

Result probabilities: Cadiz 38% | Draw 34% | Valencia 28%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.63 | Draw 2.93 | Valencia 3.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valencia (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cadiz 40% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 60% (last 10 away games).

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