Cadiz 0-0 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cadiz at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla plays host to Cadiz versus Las Palmas in La Liga (matchday 37). Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cadiz's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Las Palmas's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Las Palmas's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Cadiz's favour (1.40 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Cadiz's last 10 home games and Las Palmas's last 10 away games) — Cadiz have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Las Palmas in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Cadiz 1–1 Las Palmas — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 39% versus Las Palmas 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 25% | Las Palmas 31%). Note also that Las Palmas surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Cadiz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.35 xG and Las Palmas 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.751 / defence 0.904 | Las Palmas attack 0.714 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.096. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.35. Las Palmas's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cadiz's projected output up. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.714 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Cadiz's last 74 games and Las Palmas's last 36.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 52% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 20%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 1.91 | Draw 3.55 | Las Palmas 5.12. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cadiz are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cadiz's last 10 home games and Las Palmas's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cadiz 30% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 37 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 52% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Cadiz 1.35 / Las Palmas 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.751 / def 0.904 | Las Palmas attack 0.714 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Las Palmas xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Las Palmas kick off?
Cadiz vs Las Palmas kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Las Palmas.
Where is Cadiz vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Las Palmas part of?
Cadiz vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 37) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 52% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cadiz and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Cadiz vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.75x the league average against Las Palmas's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.71x) against Cadiz's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 74 games and Las Palmas's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.55
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.06
0.71
Las Palmas xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
5%
19.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.71 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz's recent record stands at 6W 14D 16L from 36 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 18L across 36 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Cadiz against 1.06 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 5W 8D 5L from their last 18 home games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Las Palmas's away record stands at 4W 3D 11L across their last 18 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.89 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Las Palmas
Current Season
Cadiz (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Current Season
Las Palmas
Current Season
❓ Cadiz vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 6W 14D 16L in their last 36 games (0.89 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 10W 8D 18L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Las Palmas away?
Cadiz's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.28 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cadiz
2
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Las Palmas?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 0, Las Palmas have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 May 2024: Cadiz 0-0 Las Palmas.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 39%, Las Palmas 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Cadiz and 28% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 39% of games; Las Palmas in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cadiz's recent matches and 33% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Cadiz's recent games and 28% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Cadiz's recent matches and 67% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 37, as Cadiz and Las Palmas drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.35 xG and Las Palmas 0.71 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cadiz fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.75 / defence 0.90 against Las Palmas attack 0.71 / defence 1.28, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 52% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 20%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 25%, Las Palmas 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Las Palmas's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.89 PPG, Las Palmas 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Las Palmas (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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