Cadiz 1-1 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Getafe at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Getafe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Getafe meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's home record at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla: 0W 6D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Getafe (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Getafe are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cadiz 0W, Getafe 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Getafe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 50% versus Getafe 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 38% | Getafe 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.89 xG and Getafe 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.656 / defence 1.250 | Getafe attack 0.693 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.173. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Getafe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Cadiz games / 24 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 30% | Draw 34% | Getafe 36%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Getafe 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Getafe at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Getafe 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 30% | Draw 34% | Getafe 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Cadiz 0.89 / Getafe 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.656 / def 1.250 | Getafe attack 0.693 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Getafe (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Getafe xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Getafe kick off?
Cadiz vs Getafe kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Getafe?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Getafe.
Where is Cadiz vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Getafe part of?
Cadiz vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 30% chance of winning, Getafe a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cadiz and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Getafe?
Record (1 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 0 | Getafe 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Getafe in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Getafe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.66x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.69x) against Cadiz's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
30%
3.38
34%
2.93
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Cadiz xG
Total xG
1.91
1.02
Getafe xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.02 for Getafe, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz come into this having played 24 games, going 3W 10D 11L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Getafe sit at 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Cadiz against 1.04 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cadiz's home form reads 0W 7D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Getafe have taken 0.42 points per game from 12 outings (0W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.96 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 24 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Getafe in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 3W 10D 11L in their last 24 games (0.79 PPG), while Getafe have gone 6W 7D 11L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Getafe away?
Cadiz's home record (0.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.58 PPG; Getafe away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Getafe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 4-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Getafe?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Getafe have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Cadiz 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 50%, Getafe 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Cadiz and 25% for Getafe.
On the defensive side: Cadiz have failed to score in 50% of games; Getafe in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cadiz's recent matches and 33% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cadiz's recent games and 25% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Getafe tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Getafe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Getafe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 25, as Cadiz and Getafe drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.89 xG and Getafe 1.02 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.66 / defence 1.25 against Getafe attack 0.69 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 30% | Draw 34% | Getafe 36%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 38%, Getafe 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.79 PPG, Getafe 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.