Cadiz 2-2 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Celta Vigo make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to face Cadiz in La Liga (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cadiz have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cadiz at home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Celta Vigo's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Celta Vigo's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Celta Vigo are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Cadiz edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Dec 2023, ended Cadiz 1–1 Celta Vigo — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 36% versus Celta Vigo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 27% | Celta Vigo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.01 xG and Celta Vigo 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.682 / defence 1.164 | Celta Vigo attack 1.196 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.141. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.682 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Cadiz's last 63 games and Celta Vigo's last 63.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 22% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 48%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.64 | Draw 3.28 | Celta Vigo 2.08. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cadiz 40% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 22% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Cadiz 1.01 / Celta Vigo 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.682 / def 1.164 | Celta Vigo attack 1.196 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Celta Vigo xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Cadiz vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Cadiz 2 - 2 Celta Vigo.
Where is Cadiz vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Celta Vigo part of?
Cadiz vs Celta Vigo is a La Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 22% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cadiz and Celta Vigo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cadiz vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.68) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (1.20x) against Cadiz's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 63 games and Celta Vigo's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
22%
4.64
30%
3.28
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.60
1.59
Celta Vigo xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
22.72
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.59 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz's recent record stands at 12W 23D 28L from 63 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 30L across 63 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Cadiz against 1.00 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 9W 12D 10L from their last 31 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 6W 8D 17L across their last 31 away games, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.11 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
Cadiz (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 23D 28L in their last 63 games (0.94 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 15W 18D 30L in their last 63 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Celta Vigo away?
Cadiz's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.26 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won Celta Vigo 3-0 Cadiz on 2 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Celta Vigo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Celta Vigo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 February 2024: Cadiz 2-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Celta Vigo?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 36%, Celta Vigo 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cadiz) and 52% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 45% of games; Celta Vigo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Celta Vigo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Celta Vigo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cadiz's recent matches and 55% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Celta Vigo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cadiz's recent games and 52% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Celta Vigo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Cadiz's recent matches and 71% of Celta Vigo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 26, as Cadiz and Celta Vigo drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.01 xG and Celta Vigo 1.59 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cadiz beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.68 / defence 1.16 against Celta Vigo attack 1.20 / defence 1.09, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 22% | Draw 30% | Celta Vigo 48%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 27%, Celta Vigo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.94 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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