Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Atletico Madrid face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atletico Madrid welcome Osasuna to Riyadh Air Metropolitano in La Liga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 12 January 2025 at 15:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atletico Madrid have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atletico Madrid at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Atletico Madrid: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Osasuna, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Atletico Madrid 1–4 Osasuna — a Osasuna win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Atletico Madrid and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Atletico Madrid trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 46% versus Osasuna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 55% | Osasuna 46%). Note also that Osasuna surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Atletico Madrid recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 1.79 xG and Osasuna 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.259 / defence 0.891 | Osasuna attack 0.811 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.184. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack rating of 1.259 — their 1.79 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atletico Madrid's last 56 games and Osasuna's last 56.
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 60% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.68 | Draw 4.37 | Osasuna 5.70. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Madrid at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atletico Madrid 50% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 19 | Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano • Kick-off: Sunday 12 January 2025 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 60% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Atletico Madrid 1.79 / Osasuna 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.259 / def 0.891 | Osasuna attack 0.811 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Osasuna xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Atletico Madrid 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 19) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 60% chance of winning, Osasuna a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atletico Madrid's last 56 games and Osasuna's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
60%
1.68
23%
4.37
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.65
0.85
Osasuna xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
34.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.85 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atletico Madrid come into this having played 56 games, going 36W 9D 11L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.25 PPG from 56 outings (18W 16D 22L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atletico Madrid's home form reads 22W 3D 2L across their last 27 home games, a 2.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.09 PPG overall — Atletico Madrid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 27 away games (7W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.21 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Atletico Madrid (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 36W 9D 11L in their last 56 games (2.09 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Osasuna away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.56 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Osasuna in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 16 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2026, when Atletico Madrid won Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Madrid have won 8, Osasuna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2026: Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 59%, Osasuna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Atletico Madrid and 52% for Osasuna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Osasuna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico Madrid and Osasuna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Atletico Madrid's games and 52% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atletico Madrid and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Atletico Madrid's matches and 52% of Osasuna's.
Do Atletico Madrid and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 74% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 1-0 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.79 xG and Osasuna 0.85 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.26 / defence 0.89 against Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 60% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 55%, Osasuna 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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