Atletico Madrid 2-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Madrid vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Riyadh Air Metropolitano to face Atletico Madrid in La Liga (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Atletico Madrid (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Atletico Madrid's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Atletico Madrid's favour (2.10 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Atletico Madrid, 2 for Alaves and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Atletico Madrid 0–2 Alaves — a Alaves win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Atletico Madrid half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 45% versus Alaves 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 53% | Alaves 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 2.10 xG and Alaves 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.171 / defence 0.767 | Alaves attack 0.845 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.061. Alaves's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atletico Madrid's projected output up. Atletico Madrid have a tight defence (rating 0.767), which is pulling Alaves's projected output down. Data: built from Atletico Madrid's last 51 games and Alaves's last 51.
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 70% | Draw 19% | Alaves 11%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.43 | Draw 5.19 | Alaves 9.30. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (70%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Atletico Madrid's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atletico Madrid 50% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 70% | Draw 19% | Alaves 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Atletico Madrid 2.10 / Alaves 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.171 / def 0.767 | Alaves attack 0.845 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Alaves xG
44%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Alaves kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Alaves kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Atletico Madrid 2 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Alaves part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 70% chance of winning, Alaves a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atletico Madrid's attack at 1.17x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.84x) against Atletico Madrid's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from Atletico Madrid's last 51 games and Alaves's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.19
11%
9.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.79
0.69
Alaves xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
9.30
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
1%
76.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.69 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Atletico Madrid have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 31W 9D 11L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Alaves's form line: 16W 11D 24L from 51 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atletico Madrid have posted 2.52 PPG from their last 25 home games (20W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Atletico Madrid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alaves have gone 4W 6D 15L from their last 25 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.98 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Alaves
Blended
Atletico Madrid (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Atletico Madrid and Alaves in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 31W 9D 11L in their last 51 games (2.00 PPG), while Alaves have gone 16W 11D 24L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Alaves away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.52 PPG; Alaves away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Alaves in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Atletico Madrid and Alaves, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won Atletico Madrid 4-1 Alaves on 2 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Madrid have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Atletico Madrid
2
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Alaves?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Madrid have won 5, Alaves have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Alaves?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 60%, Alaves 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Atletico Madrid) and 44% (Alaves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Alaves in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico Madrid and Alaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 44% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atletico Madrid and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Atletico Madrid's matches and 44% of Alaves's.
Do Atletico Madrid and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 64% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Madrid edge out Alaves 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Alaves 2-1 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 2.10 xG and Alaves 0.69 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.17 / defence 0.77 against Alaves attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 70% | Draw 19% | Alaves 11%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 53%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Alaves's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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