Athletic Club 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
San Mamés Barria plays host to Athletic Club versus Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Athletic Club have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Athletic Club have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Athletic Club's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Athletic Club edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2024, ended Athletic Club 2–1 Osasuna — a Athletic Club win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 50% versus Osasuna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 42% | Osasuna 46%). Note also that Osasuna surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Athletic Club recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.78 xG and Osasuna 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.262 / defence 0.779 | Osasuna attack 0.690 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.190. Athletic Club carry an above-average attack rating of 1.262 — their 1.78 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Athletic Club have a tight defence (rating 0.779), which is pulling Osasuna's projected output down. Data: built from Athletic Club's last 66 games and Osasuna's last 66.
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 65% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 13%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.54 | Draw 4.48 | Osasuna 7.79. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (65%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Athletic Club 60% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 65% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Athletic Club 1.78 / Osasuna 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.262 / def 0.779 | Osasuna attack 0.690 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Osasuna xG
39%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Athletic Club vs Osasuna kick off?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 30 March 2025 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Athletic Club 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Athletic Club vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Osasuna part of?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 65% chance of winning, Osasuna a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Athletic Club and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Athletic Club vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.69x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Athletic Club's last 66 games and Osasuna's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
65%
1.54
22%
4.48
13%
7.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.42
0.64
Osasuna xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
7.79
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
2%
46.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.64 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 33W 21D 12L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 19W 21D 26L from 66 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 2.22 PPG from their last 32 home games (20W 11D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Athletic Club are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 7W 10D 15L from their last 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Athletic Club are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.18 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
Athletic Club (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Athletic Club
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Athletic Club and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 33W 21D 12L in their last 66 games (1.82 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 21D 26L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Osasuna away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.22 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Osasuna in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
5
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Athletic Club have won 4, Osasuna have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 53%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Athletic Club) and 47% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Osasuna in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Athletic Club and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 50% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Athletic Club and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Athletic Club's recent games and 47% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 66% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Athletic Club's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 29, as Athletic Club and Osasuna drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.78 xG and Osasuna 0.64 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against Osasuna attack 0.69 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 65% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 13%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 42%, Osasuna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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