Athletic Club 2-2 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Athletic Club vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Athletic Club and Granada CF meet at San Mamés Barria in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 November 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Athletic Club's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club at San Mamés Barria this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Granada CF (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Athletic Club — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Granada CF — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 46% versus Granada CF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 15% | Granada CF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.05 xG and Granada CF 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 0.850 / defence 1.078 | Granada CF attack 0.756 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.116. Data: 13 Athletic Club games / 13 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 37% | Draw 34% | Granada CF 29%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Granada CF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 50% | Granada CF 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Friday 26 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 37% | Draw 34% | Granada CF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Athletic Club 1.05 / Granada CF 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 0.850 / def 1.078 | Granada CF attack 0.756 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Granada CF xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Granada CF kick off?
Athletic Club vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 26 November 2021 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Granada CF?
Athletic Club 2 - 2 Granada CF.
Where is Athletic Club vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Granada CF part of?
Athletic Club vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 37% chance of winning, Granada CF a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Athletic Club and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Athletic Club and Granada CF in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Granada CF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Athletic Club's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.76x) against Athletic Club's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
37%
2.71
34%
2.95
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
1.96
0.91
Granada CF xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.91 for Granada CF, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Athletic Club's recent record stands at 4W 7D 2L from 13 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 6L across 13 games — 0.85 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Granada CF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Athletic Club have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Granada CF's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Athletic Club are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 4W 7D 2L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Granada CF away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.67 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Granada CF in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Granada CF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Athletic Club
3
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 0, Granada CF have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Athletic Club 1-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Granada CF?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 50%, Granada CF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Athletic Club and 33% for Granada CF.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Granada CF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 33% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Athletic Club's recent games and 33% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Granada CF tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club and Granada CF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 15, as Athletic Club and Granada CF drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.05 xG and Granada CF 0.91 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Granada CF outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Granada CF attack 0.76 / defence 1.19, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 37% | Draw 34% | Granada CF 29%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 15%, Granada CF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Granada CF's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Granada CF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.