Almeria 0-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 64% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almeria face Valladolid.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Almeria host Valladolid at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in La Liga (matchday 37). Kick-off is Sunday 28 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Almeria stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Almeria at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valladolid — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valladolid's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almeria at 1.30 PPG versus Valladolid's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Almeria, 1 for Valladolid and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Sep 2022, ended Almeria 0–1 Valladolid — a Valladolid win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Almeria trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Valladolid trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 67% versus Valladolid 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 61% | Valladolid 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 2.04 xG and Valladolid 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.019 / defence 1.144 | Valladolid attack 0.745 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.039. Valladolid's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almeria's projected output up. Valladolid's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Almeria's last 36 games and Valladolid's last 36.
Result probabilities: Almeria 64% | Draw 20% | Valladolid 15%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 1.56 | Draw 4.89 | Valladolid 6.48. The model has a clear lean to Almeria (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almeria as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almeria's last 10 home games and Valladolid's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almeria 70% (last 10 home games) | Valladolid 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 37 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 64% | Draw 20% | Valladolid 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Almeria 2.04 / Valladolid 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 1.019 / def 1.144 | Valladolid attack 0.745 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Almeria (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Valladolid xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almeria vs Valladolid FAQs
What time does Almeria vs Valladolid kick off?
Almeria vs Valladolid kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Valladolid?
Almeria 0 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Almeria vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Valladolid part of?
Almeria vs Valladolid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 37) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 64% chance of winning, Valladolid a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Almeria and Valladolid will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almeria vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Almeria's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almeria's last 36 games and Valladolid's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.89
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.93
0.89
Valladolid xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
49.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almeria vs Valladolid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Almeria and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Almeria and 0.89 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Almeria have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 11W 6D 19L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Valladolid's form line: 11W 5D 20L from 36 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 1.08 PPG, Valladolid on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almeria have posted 1.78 PPG from their last 18 home games (10W 2D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Valladolid have gone 3W 2D 13L from their last 18 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almeria are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.92 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Current Season
Valladolid
Current Season
Almeria (Home) vs Valladolid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almeria
Current Season
Valladolid
Current Season
❓ Almeria vs Valladolid Form FAQs
What form are Almeria and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 6D 19L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 11W 5D 20L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Valladolid away?
Almeria's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.78 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 28 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Almeria
1
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Almeria vs Valladolid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Valladolid?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Almeria have won 0, Valladolid have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Almeria and Valladolid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 May 2023: Almeria 0-0 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Valladolid?
Valladolid have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 67%, Valladolid 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Almeria and 61% for Valladolid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almeria vs Valladolid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almeria and Valladolid matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Almeria's games and 44% of Valladolid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almeria and Valladolid matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Almeria's matches and 61% of Valladolid's.
Do Almeria and Valladolid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Almeria's recent matches and 67% of Valladolid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almeria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria and Valladolid finished level at 0-0 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 2.04 xG and Valladolid 0.89 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almeria fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Valladolid landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against Valladolid attack 0.74 / defence 1.36, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 64% | Draw 20% | Valladolid 15%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 61%, Valladolid 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valladolid's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 1.08 PPG, Valladolid 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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