Almeria 1-2 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 44%, yet in-form Las Palmas provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almeria vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Almeria welcome Las Palmas to Power Horse Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Power Horse Stadium, Almeria have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Las Palmas — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Las Palmas's 1.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Almeria's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Almeria trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Las Palmas trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 80% versus Las Palmas 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 80% | Las Palmas 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.43 xG and Las Palmas 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.044 / defence 1.452 | Las Palmas attack 0.657 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.176. Data: 48 Almeria games / 10 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 44% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 29%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Las Palmas 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almeria are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Las Palmas (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Almeria 70% | Las Palmas 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 44% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Almeria 1.43 / Las Palmas 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 1.044 / def 1.452 | Las Palmas attack 0.657 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Almeria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Las Palmas xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Las Palmas kick off?
Almeria vs Las Palmas kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Almeria 1 - 2 Las Palmas.
Where is Almeria vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Las Palmas part of?
Almeria vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 44% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Almeria and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Las Palmas?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almeria and Las Palmas in?
Almeria (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Las Palmas (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almeria's attack at 1.04x the league average against Las Palmas's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.65
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.56
1.12
Las Palmas xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Almeria and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Almeria and 1.12 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria's recent record stands at 0W 3D 7L from 10 games, a 0.30 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Las Palmas by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almeria have managed 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Las Palmas's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Las Palmas's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.60 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Las Palmas in 30%.
Last 10 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 games (0.30 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Las Palmas away?
Las Palmas's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 0.40 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Almeria
0
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Las Palmas?
From 2 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Las Palmas have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 80%, Las Palmas 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Almeria) and 20% (Las Palmas).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Las Palmas?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Almeria's recent matches and 20% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Almeria's recent games and 20% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Las Palmas defy the odds to beat Almeria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Almeria 1-2 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.43 xG and Las Palmas 1.12 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Las Palmas outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 1.04 / defence 1.45 against Las Palmas attack 0.66 / defence 0.91, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 44% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 29%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Las Palmas win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 80%, Las Palmas 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Las Palmas's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Las Palmas arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.