Almeria 1-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almeria vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Getafe travel to Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos to take on Almeria. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 November 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almeria stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos this season: 4W 0D 2L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Getafe have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almeria at 0.90 PPG versus Getafe's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Almeria in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Getafe in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 62% versus Getafe 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 62% | Getafe 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.58 xG and Getafe 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.210 / defence 1.166 | Getafe attack 0.853 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.145. Data: 13 Almeria games / 51 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 47% | Draw 25% | Getafe 27%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Getafe 3.70. Almeria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almeria are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almeria 83% | Getafe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 47% | Draw 25% | Getafe 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Almeria 1.58 / Getafe 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 1.210 / def 1.166 | Getafe attack 0.853 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Almeria (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Getafe xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Getafe kick off?
Almeria vs Getafe kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Getafe?
Almeria 1 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Almeria vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Getafe part of?
Almeria vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 47% chance of winning, Getafe a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Almeria and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Getafe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almeria and Getafe in?
Almeria (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Getafe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almeria's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Getafe's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.94
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.72
1.14
Getafe xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
6%
17.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Almeria and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Almeria and 1.14 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria's recent record stands at 4W 1D 8L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 5L across 13 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 1.00 PPG, Getafe on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almeria have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Getafe's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.92 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Getafe in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Getafe in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 4W 1D 8L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Getafe have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Getafe away?
Almeria's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 2.00 PPG; Getafe away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Almeria or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Getafe in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Getafe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Almeria's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Almeria
0
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Getafe?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 2, Getafe have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Almeria 1-3 Getafe.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Almeria at 83%, Getafe at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Almeria) and 33% (Getafe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Getafe in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Getafe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Almeria's games and 50% of Getafe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Almeria's matches and 33% of Getafe's.
Do Almeria and Getafe tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Getafe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almeria edge out Getafe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Getafe 1-0 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.58 xG and Getafe 1.14 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 1.21 / defence 1.17 against Getafe attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 47% | Draw 25% | Getafe 27%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 62%, Getafe 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 1.00 PPG, Getafe 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.