Almeria 6-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almeria face Cadiz.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Almeria welcome Cadiz to Power Horse Stadium in La Liga (matchday 38). Kick-off is Saturday 25 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Almeria have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Almeria's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cadiz stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cadiz away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Almeria) versus 1.40 (Cadiz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Almeria, 0 for Cadiz and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Almeria 1–1 Cadiz — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Almeria in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 64% versus Cadiz 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 63% | Cadiz 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.05 xG and Cadiz 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.700 / defence 1.370 | Cadiz attack 0.688 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.140. Almeria's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.07. Almeria's defence rating of 1.370 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cadiz's projected output up. Data: built from Almeria's last 75 games and Cadiz's last 75.
Result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 36%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.90 | Draw 3.36 | Cadiz 2.80. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almeria's last 10 home games and Cadiz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almeria 40% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, matchday 38 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Almeria 1.05 / Cadiz 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.700 / def 1.370 | Cadiz attack 0.688 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Cadiz xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almeria vs Cadiz FAQs
What time does Almeria vs Cadiz kick off?
Almeria vs Cadiz kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Cadiz?
Almeria 6 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Almeria vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Cadiz part of?
Almeria vs Cadiz is a La Liga fixture (matchday 38) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 34% chance of winning, Cadiz a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Almeria and Cadiz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Almeria vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.70x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almeria's last 75 games and Cadiz's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.36
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.12
1.07
Cadiz xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almeria vs Cadiz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Almeria and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Almeria and 1.07 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almeria come into this having played 75 games, going 13W 20D 42L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.00 PPG from 75 outings (16W 27D 32L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 0.79 PPG, Cadiz on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Almeria's home form reads 10W 11D 16L across their last 37 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.65 points per game from their last 37 away games (4W 12D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almeria are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.73 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
Almeria (Home) vs Cadiz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almeria
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Almeria vs Cadiz Form FAQs
What form are Almeria and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 13W 20D 42L in their last 75 games (0.79 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 16W 27D 32L in their last 75 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Cadiz away?
Almeria's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.11 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Almeria or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Cadiz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2024, when Almeria won Almeria 6-1 Cadiz.
Almeria's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
3
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Almeria vs Cadiz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Cadiz?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almeria have won 1, Cadiz have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Cadiz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2024: Almeria 6-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Cadiz?
Almeria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 60%, Cadiz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Almeria) and 24% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Almeria have failed to score in 32% of games; Cadiz in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almeria vs Cadiz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almeria and Cadiz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Almeria's recent matches and 38% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Almeria and Cadiz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Almeria's recent games and 24% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Cadiz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Almeria's recent matches and 51% of Cadiz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almeria run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Cadiz 6-1 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.05 xG and Cadiz 1.07 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Almeria beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.70 / defence 1.37 against Cadiz attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 34% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 36%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Almeria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 63%, Cadiz 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 0.79 PPG, Cadiz 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Cadiz (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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