Almeria 0-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Athletic Club (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Almeria face Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Athletic Club make the trip to Power Horse Stadium to face Almeria in La Liga (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Monday 12 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Almeria have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Almeria have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Athletic Club's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Athletic Club's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Athletic Club are 1.80 PPG clear of Almeria over their recent games (2.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Athletic Club have the stronger record — 3 wins to Almeria's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2023, ended Almeria 0–3 Athletic Club — a Athletic Club win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Athletic Club have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Almeria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 66% versus Athletic Club 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 64% | Athletic Club 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 0.75 xG and Athletic Club 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.710 / defence 1.222 | Athletic Club attack 0.841 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.168. Almeria's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Athletic Club bring a tight defence (rating 0.784, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Almeria's projected output down. Almeria's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Athletic Club's projected output up. Data: built from Almeria's last 61 games and Athletic Club's last 61.
Result probabilities: Almeria 21% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 45%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 4.66 | Draw 2.99 | Athletic Club 2.22. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almeria 60% (last 10 home games) | Athletic Club 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 21% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Almeria 0.75 / Athletic Club 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.710 / def 1.222 | Athletic Club attack 0.841 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Athletic Club xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almeria vs Athletic Club FAQs
What time does Almeria vs Athletic Club kick off?
Almeria vs Athletic Club kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 12 February 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Almeria 0 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Almeria vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Athletic Club part of?
Almeria vs Athletic Club is a La Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 21% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Almeria and Athletic Club will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Almeria vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almeria's attack rating (0.71) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (0.84x) against Almeria's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Almeria's last 61 games and Athletic Club's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
21%
4.66
33%
2.99
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Almeria xG
Total xG
1.95
1.20
Athletic Club xG
4.66
21%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 17.1 | 10.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almeria vs Athletic Club Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Almeria and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Almeria and 1.20 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almeria's recent record stands at 11W 14D 36L from 61 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Athletic Club, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 19L across 61 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Athletic Club by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almeria have managed 10W 8D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.77 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Athletic Club's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almeria are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.46 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
Almeria (Home) vs Athletic Club (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almeria
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Almeria vs Athletic Club Form FAQs
What form are Almeria and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 14D 36L in their last 61 games (0.77 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 27W 15D 19L in their last 61 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.27 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Almeria or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 12 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Athletic Club won Athletic Club 4-0 Almeria on 30 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
1
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Almeria vs Athletic Club H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Athletic Club?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almeria have won 0, Athletic Club have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Almeria and Athletic Club last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 February 2024: Almeria 0-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 60%, Athletic Club 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Almeria) and 43% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Almeria have failed to score in 30% of games; Athletic Club in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almeria vs Athletic Club Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almeria and Athletic Club matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Almeria's games and 50% of Athletic Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almeria and Athletic Club matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Almeria's recent games and 43% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Athletic Club matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Almeria's recent matches and 57% of Athletic Club's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almeria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Almeria and Athletic Club drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 0.75 xG and Athletic Club 1.20 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.71 / defence 1.22 against Athletic Club attack 0.84 / defence 0.78, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 21% | Draw 33% | Athletic Club 45%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 64%, Athletic Club 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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