Alaves 1-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Villarreal at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Villarreal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Villarreal at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio Mendizorrotza — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio Mendizorrotza than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Villarreal are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alaves register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Villarreal in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Alaves have won 2, Villarreal 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Villarreal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 51% versus Villarreal 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 40% | Villarreal 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.36 xG and Villarreal 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.859 / defence 1.070 | Villarreal attack 1.138 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.143. Data: 65 Alaves games / 65 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 36% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 38%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Villarreal 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 60% | Villarreal 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 36% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Alaves 1.36 / Villarreal 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.859 / def 1.070 | Villarreal attack 1.138 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Villarreal xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Villarreal kick off?
Alaves vs Villarreal kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves 1 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Alaves vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Villarreal part of?
Alaves vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 36% chance of winning, Villarreal a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Alaves and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
Record (7 meetings): Alaves 2W | Draws 2 | Villarreal 3W.
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.86) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.81
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.76
1.39
Villarreal xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Alaves and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Alaves and 1.39 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 17W 18D 30L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal's form line: 37W 13D 15L from 65 games, 1.91 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.34 PPG from 32 outings (11W 10D 11L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 17W 5D 10L from 32 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.86 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 63%.
Last 65 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 17W 18D 30L in their last 65 games (1.06 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 37W 13D 15L in their last 65 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.34 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2021, when Villarreal won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
From 9 meetings on record, Alaves have won 3, Villarreal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Alaves 1-0 Villarreal.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 47%, Villarreal 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Alaves) and 56% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Alaves's recent matches and 62% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Alaves's recent games and 56% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Villarreal tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 28, as Alaves and Villarreal drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.36 xG and Villarreal 1.39 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Villarreal attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 36% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 38%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Villarreal 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.