Alaves 1-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Alaves take on Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rayo Vallecano make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves at Estadio de Mendizorroza this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Rayo Vallecano have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Alaves. A 0.70 PPG lead over Rayo Vallecano (1.30 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alaves, 2 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Rayo Vallecano — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 44% versus Rayo Vallecano 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 30% | Rayo Vallecano 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.99 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.729 / defence 1.120 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.787 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.105. Alaves's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Alaves games / 65 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 32% | Draw 36% | Rayo Vallecano 31%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Rayo Vallecano 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 50% | Rayo Vallecano 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 32% | Draw 36% | Rayo Vallecano 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Alaves 0.99 / Rayo Vallecano 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.729 / def 1.120 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.787 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Rayo Vallecano xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Alaves 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 32% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alaves and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (3 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 2W.
What form are Alaves and Rayo Vallecano in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alaves's attack at 0.73x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.79x) against Alaves's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
36%
2.76
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.97
0.97
Rayo Vallecano xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.6 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Alaves and 0.97 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves's recent record stands at 7W 8D 12L from 27 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 5W 11D 11L across 27 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Alaves against 0.96 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 5W 3D 5L from 13 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 0.85 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 5W 11D 11L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Alaves's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.38 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Alaves or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Rayo Vallecano have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
6
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Alaves 1-2 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 46% (Alaves) and 23% (Rayo Vallecano) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Alaves and 38% for Rayo Vallecano.
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano in 46%; Alaves have failed to score in 31% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Alaves's recent matches and 23% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Alaves's recent games and 38% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 31% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Rayo Vallecano 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.99 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.97 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.79 / defence 0.95, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 32% | Draw 36% | Rayo Vallecano 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 30%, Rayo Vallecano 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.07 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.