Alaves 0-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Osasuna at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 0W 0D 3L from 3 La Liga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna — All Games: 1W 2D 1L from 4 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Osasuna are 1.25 PPG ahead (1.25 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Alaves in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 33% versus Osasuna 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Alaves 67% | Osasuna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.00 xG and Osasuna 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.805 / defence 1.430 | Osasuna attack 1.070 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 0.956 / away 1.081. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Alaves games / 4 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 19% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 49%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Osasuna 2.04. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 33% | Osasuna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 19% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Alaves 1.00 / Osasuna 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.805 / def 1.430 | Osasuna attack 1.070 / def 1.297 | league avg home 0.956 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Osasuna xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Osasuna kick off?
Alaves vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves 0 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Alaves vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Osasuna part of?
Alaves vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 19% chance of winning, Osasuna a 49% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Alaves and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Osasuna in?
Alaves (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.81) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
19%
5.19
31%
3.18
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.65
1.66
Osasuna xG
5.19
19%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
4%
27.14
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Alaves and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Alaves and 1.66 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osasuna in 67%.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Alaves or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Osasuna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Osasuna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Alaves
3
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Osasuna?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 0, Osasuna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Alaves 2-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 33%, Osasuna 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Alaves and 67% for Osasuna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 33%; Alaves have failed to score in 67% of games; Osasuna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alaves's recent matches and 67% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Alaves's matches and 67% of Osasuna's.
Do Alaves and Osasuna tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Alaves 0-2 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.00 xG and Osasuna 1.66 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alaves fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.81 / defence 1.43 against Osasuna attack 1.07 / defence 1.30, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 19% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 49%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 67%, Osasuna 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Osasuna conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.