Alaves 2-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Mallorca meet at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Alaves have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio Mendizorrotza than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mallorca away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alaves, 3 for Mallorca and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 54% versus Mallorca 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 43% | Mallorca 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.62 xG and Mallorca 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.922 / defence 1.137 | Mallorca attack 0.842 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.109. Data: 70 Alaves games / 70 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 50% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 25%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Mallorca 4.00. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 70% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 50% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Alaves 1.62 / Mallorca 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.922 / def 1.137 | Mallorca attack 0.842 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Alaves (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Mallorca xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Mallorca kick off?
Alaves vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Mallorca?
Alaves 2 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Alaves vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Mallorca part of?
Alaves vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 50% chance of winning, Mallorca a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Alaves and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Mallorca?
Record (7 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 3 | Mallorca 3W.
What form are Alaves and Mallorca in?
Alaves (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.92) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.84x) against Alaves's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
50%
1.98
25%
4.04
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.68
1.06
Mallorca xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
5%
20.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Alaves and 1.06 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alaves's recent record stands at 18W 21D 31L from 70 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 31L across 70 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Alaves against 1.19 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 11W 12D 11L from 34 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 7W 6D 21L across 34 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.07 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 70 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 18W 21D 31L in their last 70 games (1.07 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 22W 17D 31L in their last 70 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Mallorca away?
Alaves's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.32 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Mallorca?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Mallorca have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Alaves 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 50%, Mallorca 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Alaves) and 50% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 32% of games; Mallorca in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alaves's recent matches and 47% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Alaves's recent games and 50% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Mallorca tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Mallorca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Mallorca 2-1 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.62 xG and Mallorca 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 50% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 25%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 43%, Mallorca 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.07 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.