Alaves 2-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Girona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Girona at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 35). Kick-off is Friday 10 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Alaves have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Alaves have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Girona away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alaves at 1.40 PPG versus Girona's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Girona and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Dec 2023, ended Alaves 0–3 Girona — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Girona in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 35% versus Girona 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 26% | Girona 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.26 xG and Girona 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.872 / defence 0.870 | Girona attack 1.057 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.090. Data: built from Alaves's last 34 games and Girona's last 72.
Result probabilities: Alaves 42% | Draw 28% | Girona 29%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.36 | Draw 3.52 | Girona 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alaves's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 30% (last 10 home games) | Girona 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 35 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 42% | Draw 28% | Girona 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Alaves 1.26 / Girona 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.872 / def 0.870 | Girona attack 1.057 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Alaves (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Girona xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Girona FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Girona kick off?
Alaves vs Girona kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Girona?
Alaves 2 - 2 Girona.
Where is Alaves vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Girona part of?
Alaves vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 35) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 42% chance of winning, Girona a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Alaves and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Alaves vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alaves's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 34 games and Girona's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.52
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.27
1.00
Girona xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Alaves and 1.00 for Girona, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 11W 8D 15L from 34 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 23W 5D 6L across 34 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 8W 3D 6L from their last 17 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 9W 3D 5L across their last 17 away games, a 1.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.15 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
Alaves (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Alaves vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Girona in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 games (1.21 PPG), while Girona have gone 23W 5D 6L in their last 34 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.59 PPG; Girona away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Alaves or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Girona in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 23 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Dec 2023, when Girona won Girona 3-0 Alaves.
Alaves's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Alaves
2
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Girona?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 1, Girona have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2026: Alaves 2-2 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 35%, Girona 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Alaves) and 53% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Girona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Alaves's recent matches and 59% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Alaves's recent games and 53% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Alaves's recent matches and 82% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves and Girona share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 35, as Alaves and Girona drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.26 xG and Girona 1.00 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Girona outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.87 / defence 0.87 against Girona attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 42% | Draw 28% | Girona 29%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 26%, Girona 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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