Alaves 0-0 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alaves face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atletico Madrid make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Alaves (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Alaves have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atletico Madrid's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atletico Madrid away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Alaves, 1.70 for Atletico Madrid — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Alaves, 3 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid — a Atletico Madrid win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Atletico Madrid half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 44% versus Atletico Madrid 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 35% | Atletico Madrid 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alaves surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Atletico Madrid have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.72 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.643 / defence 0.871 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.032 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.184. Alaves's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Alaves's last 71 games and Atletico Madrid's last 71.
Result probabilities: Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 43%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.07 | Draw 3.10 | Atletico Madrid 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.72 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Alaves's last 10 home games and Atletico Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 30% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Madrid 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 34 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Alaves 0.72 / Atletico Madrid 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.643 / def 0.871 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.032 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Atletico Madrid xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Atletico Madrid FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Alaves 0 - 0 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 34) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 25% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Alaves and Atletico Madrid will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Alaves vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Alaves's attack at 0.64x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (1.03x) against Alaves's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 71 games and Atletico Madrid's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
25%
4.07
32%
3.10
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.79
1.06
Atletico Madrid xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 17.8 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Alaves and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Alaves and 1.06 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 20W 20D 31L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 43W 13D 15L from 71 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 35 home games (14W 8D 13L).
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 15W 8D 12L from their last 35 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.77 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Alaves (Home) vs Atletico Madrid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
❓ Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 20W 20D 31L in their last 71 games (1.13 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 43W 13D 15L in their last 71 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.43 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Alaves or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Alaves and Atletico Madrid, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won Atletico Madrid 4-1 Alaves on 2 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Alaves
2
Draws
5
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Atletico Madrid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Atletico Madrid?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 34%, Atletico Madrid 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Alaves and 40% for Atletico Madrid.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 37%; Alaves have failed to score in 34% of games; Atletico Madrid in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Atletico Madrid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Alaves's recent matches and 37% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Atletico Madrid matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Alaves's recent games and 40% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Atletico Madrid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Alaves's recent matches and 71% of Atletico Madrid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Atletico Madrid finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.72 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.06 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Madrid landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.64 / defence 0.87 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 43%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 35%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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