Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 July 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Suwon Bluewings's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Suwon Bluewings and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Suwon Bluewings 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Suwon Bluewings 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.020 / defence 0.931 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.639 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.168. Data: 54 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 54 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 28% | Suwon Bluewings 17%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Suwon Bluewings 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Suwon Bluewings 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 28% | Suwon Bluewings 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 / Suwon Bluewings 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.020 / def 0.931 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.639 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Suwon Bluewings xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 55% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (5 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 2 | Suwon Bluewings 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.64x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.60
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.17
0.69
Suwon Bluewings xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
4%
25.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.69 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 34W 16D 9L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 16W 18D 25L from 59 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon Bluewings.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.24 PPG from 29 outings (19W 8D 2L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 7W 8D 14L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 0.95 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 34W 16D 9L in their last 59 games (2.00 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 16W 18D 25L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.24 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 15 July 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%, Suwon Bluewings 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 41% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 31%; Suwon Bluewings in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 34% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 41% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Suwon Bluewings 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon Bluewings 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.69 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.64 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Draw 28% | Suwon Bluewings 17%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%, Suwon Bluewings 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.