Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.60 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Gangwon FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Gangwon FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.79 xG and Gangwon FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.050 / defence 0.930 | Gangwon FC attack 1.089 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.210. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 55 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Draw 24% | Gangwon FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Gangwon FC 3.85. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Gangwon FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Draw 24% | Gangwon FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.79 / Gangwon FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.050 / def 0.930 | Gangwon FC attack 1.089 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Gangwon FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 50% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.14
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.01
1.23
Gangwon FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
4%
23.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.23 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 60 games, going 35W 16D 9L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (18W 19D 23L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 20W 8D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gangwon FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 35W 16D 9L in their last 60 games (2.02 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.27 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, Gangwon FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 50% (Gangwon FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 57% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 50% of Gangwon FC's.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gangwon FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gangwon FC 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.79 xG and Gangwon FC 1.23 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.93 against Gangwon FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.27, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Draw 24% | Gangwon FC 26%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, Gangwon FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.