Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 7W 2D 1L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Daegu FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Daegu FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% versus Daegu FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 xG and Daegu FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.201 / defence 1.104 | Daegu FC attack 0.737 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 33 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 80% | Daegu FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 / Daegu FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.201 / def 1.104 | Daegu FC attack 0.737 / def 1.190 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Daegu FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 44% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.74x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.64
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.37
1.03
Daegu FC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.03 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 20W 11D 6L from 37 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 12L across 37 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 12W 5D 1L from 18 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 4D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.11 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 20W 11D 6L in their last 37 games (1.92 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 12L in their last 37 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.28 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
0
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, Daegu FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 61%, Daegu FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 50% (Daegu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Daegu FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 56% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 50% of Daegu FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 xG and Daegu FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Daegu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.10 against Daegu FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 29%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 62%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Daegu FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.49. Form held, and they took the win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.