Suwon City FC 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Suwon City FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.20 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.982 / defence 1.331 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.146 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.315. Data: 49 Suwon City FC games / 49 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 22% | Draw 22% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 22% | Draw 22% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Suwon City FC 1.20 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.982 / def 1.331 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.146 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 22% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
22%
4.49
22%
4.61
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.20
2.01
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
4.49
22%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
13%
7.43
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
3%
33.39
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 2.01 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 27W 18D 31L from 76 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 43W 21D 12L across 76 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 18W 6D 14L from 38 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 18W 12D 8L across 38 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.59 scored and 0.99 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 12L in their last 76 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 71%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Suwon City FC and 53% for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Suwon City FC's matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 1-3 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.20 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.01 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.33 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 22% | Draw 22% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.