Suwon City FC 1-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 June 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Gangwon FC's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.30 for Gangwon FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Gangwon FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Gangwon FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.09 xG and Gangwon FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.947 / defence 1.412 | Gangwon FC attack 0.719 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.249. Data: 51 Suwon City FC games / 51 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 31% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Gangwon FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Suwon City FC 70% | Gangwon FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jun 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 31% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Suwon City FC 1.09 / Gangwon FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.947 / def 1.412 | Gangwon FC attack 0.719 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Gangwon FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 June 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 31% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.72x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.39
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.36
1.27
Gangwon FC xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.27 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 27W 18D 31L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 25W 20D 31L from 76 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.25 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.56 PPG from 39 outings (18W 7D 14L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 9W 9D 21L from 39 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 25W 20D 31L in their last 76 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
3
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 69%, Gangwon FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Suwon City FC and 51% for Gangwon FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Suwon City FC's games and 54% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Suwon City FC's matches and 51% of Gangwon FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 19, as Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.09 xG and Gangwon FC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.41 against Gangwon FC attack 0.72 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 31% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 39%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.