Suwon City FC 1-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Suwon City FC (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon City FC face Daejeon Citizen.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen meet at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 11:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Suwon City FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Suwon City FC's home record at Suwon Sports Complex: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Daejeon Citizen's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form favours the hosts. Suwon City FC's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Daejeon Citizen's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Suwon City FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Daejeon Citizen managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 2–0 with Suwon City FC winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Suwon City FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Daejeon Citizen half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 60% and Daejeon Citizen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 56% | Daejeon Citizen 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.63 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.991 / defence 1.020 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.886 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.129. Data: 58 Suwon City FC games / 58 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 24%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Daejeon Citizen 4.17. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 50% | Daejeon Citizen 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights