Suwon Bluewings 2-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Suwon Bluewings welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Suwon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Suwon Bluewings, 0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.26 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.860 / defence 0.783 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.880 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.151. Suwon Bluewings's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Suwon Bluewings games / 12 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 47% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.35. Suwon Bluewings hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 47% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.26 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.860 / def 0.783 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.880 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Suwon Bluewings 2 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 47% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (1 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 0W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Suwon Bluewings home split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.86) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.33
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.05
0.79
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.79 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon Bluewings edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.26 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.79 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.86 / defence 0.78 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 47% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 23%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.