Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Suwon Bluewings (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon Bluewings face Gwangju FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC meet at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 February 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Suwon Bluewings (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gwangju FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Suwon Bluewings. A 0.70 PPG lead over Gwangju FC (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon Bluewings lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon Bluewings — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 53% versus Gwangju FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 50% | Gwangju FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.68 xG and Gwangju FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.995 / defence 1.053 | Gwangju FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.233. Data: 33 Suwon Bluewings games / 0 Gwangju FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 51% | Draw 24% | Gwangju FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Gwangju FC 4.00. Suwon Bluewings hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 60% | Gwangju FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 51% | Draw 24% | Gwangju FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.68 / Gwangju FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.995 / def 1.053 | Gwangju FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Gwangju FC xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 51% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC?
Record (3 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 2W | Draws 1 | Gwangju FC 0W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.85x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 33/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.14
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.79
1.10
Gwangju FC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.10 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon Bluewings's recent record stands at 11W 12D 15L from 38 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Gwangju FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 20L across 38 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. Gwangju FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Suwon Bluewings against 1.00 for Gwangju FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Suwon Bluewings have managed 6W 7D 6L from 19 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gwangju FC's away record stands at 5W 2D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon Bluewings come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Gwangju FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.32 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Gwangju FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gwangju FC won 4-0 on 27 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
3
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2023, when Gwangju FC 4-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 53%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Suwon Bluewings) and 53% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 32% of games; Gwangju FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 53% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Suwon Bluewings 0-1 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.68 xG and Gwangju FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Gwangju FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 51% | Draw 24% | Gwangju FC 25%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 50%, Gwangju FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.18 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.