Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Gimcheon Sangmu FC take on Gangwon FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gimcheon Stadium plays host to Gimcheon Sangmu FC versus Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.40 for Gangwon FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 4W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Gangwon FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Gangwon FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.06 xG and Gangwon FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.981 / defence 0.982 | Gangwon FC attack 0.857 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.139. Data: 41 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 41 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34% | Draw 37% | Gangwon FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Gangwon FC 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Gangwon FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34% | Draw 37% | Gangwon FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.06 / Gangwon FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.981 / def 0.982 | Gangwon FC attack 0.857 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 10:30 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 3 Gangwon FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 34% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (8 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4W | Draws 1 | Gangwon FC 3W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.98) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.86x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
37%
2.71
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.02
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.96 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 36W 16D 24L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 32W 20D 24L from 76 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.53 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.84 PPG from 38 outings (21W 7D 10L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 14W 6D 18L from 38 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 games (1.63 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-4 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1
Draws
5
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37%, Gangwon FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 47% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 50% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 47% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.06 xG and Gangwon FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gangwon FC outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Gangwon FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 34% | Draw 37% | Gangwon FC 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.63 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.