Pohang Steelers 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors make the trip to Steelyard Stadium to face Pohang Steelers in K League 1, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Tuesday 6 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.77 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.774 / defence 1.233 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.178 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 0.942 / away 1.047. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Pohang Steelers games / 7 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 17% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 54%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | Jeonbuk Motors 1.85. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 17% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.77 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.774 / def 1.233 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.178 / def 1.052 | league avg home 0.942 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Jeonbuk Motors xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 6 April 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 17% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.77) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.18x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
17%
5.82
29%
3.42
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.29
1.52
Jeonbuk Motors xG
5.82
17%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
4%
26.62
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.4 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.52 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Jeonbuk Motors have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
4
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pohang Steelers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Pohang Steelers 1-3 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.77 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.52 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.77 / defence 1.23 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.18 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 17% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 54%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.