Pohang Steelers 0-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Incheon United at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers host Incheon United at Steelyard Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 07:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pohang Steelers stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pohang Steelers's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Steelyard Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Incheon United's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pohang Steelers at 1.10 PPG versus Incheon United's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Incheon United in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 53% versus Incheon United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 41% | Incheon United 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.17 xG and Incheon United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.927 / defence 1.281 | Incheon United attack 0.809 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 1.179. Incheon United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Pohang Steelers games / 32 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 35% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 37%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Incheon United 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pohang Steelers 50% | Incheon United 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 35% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.17 / Incheon United 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.927 / def 1.281 | Incheon United attack 0.809 / def 1.325 | league avg home 0.950 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Incheon United xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 35% chance of winning, Incheon United a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Incheon United in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Incheon United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pohang Steelers's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Incheon United's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.61
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.39
1.22
Incheon United xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.22 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Pohang Steelers have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 11W 9D 12L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Incheon United's form line: 10W 7D 15L from 32 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.31 PPG, Incheon United on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pohang Steelers have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Incheon United have gone 4W 2D 9L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 32 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 11W 9D 12L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Incheon United away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.13 PPG; Incheon United away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
1
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 5, Incheon United have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Incheon United 0-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Incheon United?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 47%, Incheon United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pohang Steelers) and 67% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 33% of games; Incheon United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 53% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 67% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Incheon United tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Incheon United edge out Pohang Steelers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Pohang Steelers 0-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.17 xG and Incheon United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.93 / defence 1.28 against Incheon United attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 35% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 37%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 41%, Incheon United 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Incheon United's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.31 PPG, Incheon United 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Incheon United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.