Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 5 sees Jeju United FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 06:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 7W 1D 2L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jeonbuk Motors 2.30 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 54% versus Jeju United FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 49% | Jeju United FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.41 xG and Jeju United FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.265 / defence 1.002 | Jeju United FC attack 0.939 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.264. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 Jeonbuk Motors games / 33 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Jeju United FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Jeju United FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.41 / Jeju United FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.265 / def 1.002 | Jeju United FC attack 0.939 / def 1.196 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Jeju United FC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 42% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.26) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.82
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.60
1.19
Jeju United FC xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.19 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 21W 10D 6L from 37 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 9L across 37 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jeju United FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 12W 3D 3L from 18 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 5W 9D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 62%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 21W 10D 6L in their last 37 games (1.97 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 12W 16D 9L in their last 37 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 2.17 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
3
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Jeju United FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 56%, Jeju United FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 50% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 39%; Jeju United FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 56% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Jeju United FC 2-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.41 xG and Jeju United FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jeju United FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.26 / defence 1.00 against Jeju United FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 32%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 49%, Jeju United FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.