Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Daegu FC at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 June 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 8W 1D 1L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Daegu FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Daegu FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 53% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 47% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.23 xG and Daegu FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.852 / defence 1.014 | Daegu FC attack 0.978 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.132. Data: 50 Jeonbuk Motors games / 50 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 39% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Daegu FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Daegu FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jun 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 39% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.23 / Daegu FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.852 / def 1.014 | Daegu FC attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Daegu FC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 25 June 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 39% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 0.85x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.57
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.35
1.12
Daegu FC xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.12 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 22W 10D 6L from 38 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 13L across 38 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 13W 3D 3L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 22W 10D 6L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 2.21 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Daegu FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 53%, Daegu FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Daegu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 53% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.23 xG and Daegu FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Daegu FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 39% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 33%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 47%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.