Jeju United FC 1-2 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 42%, yet in-form FC Anyang provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeju United FC host FC Anyang at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Group - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
FC Anyang — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Anyang's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Anyang's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Jeju United FC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 2 for FC Anyang and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with FC Anyang winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 54% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 46% | FC Anyang 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.34 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.930 / defence 1.077 | FC Anyang attack 0.815 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.227. Data: 66 Jeju United FC games / 33 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 29% | FC Anyang 29%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | FC Anyang 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Anyang (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 50% | FC Anyang 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 36 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 29% | FC Anyang 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Jeju United FC 1.34 / FC Anyang 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.930 / def 1.077 | FC Anyang attack 0.815 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FC Anyang xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 FC Anyang.
Where is Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang is a Relegation Group - 36 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 42% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jeju United FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Anyang?
Record (3 meetings): Jeju United FC 1W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 2W.
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Anyang in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. FC Anyang (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.93x the league average against FC Anyang's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.43
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.08
FC Anyang xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.08 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeju United FC come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 8D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, FC Anyang sit at 1.29 PPG from 35 outings (13W 6D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.00 PPG, FC Anyang on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jeju United FC's home form reads 6W 3D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Anyang have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (4W 2D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Anyang's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.29 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 60%.
Last 35 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 9W 8D 18L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 13W 6D 16L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.31 PPG; FC Anyang away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeju United FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
0
Draws
5
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Anyang?
From 7 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-0 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and FC Anyang?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 44%, FC Anyang 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jeju United FC) and 56% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 31% of games; FC Anyang in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play FC Anyang?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 62% of FC Anyang's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 56% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Relegation Group - 36, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.34 xG and FC Anyang 1.08 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against FC Anyang attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 42% | Draw 29% | FC Anyang 29%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, FC Anyang 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Anyang's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.00 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.